Re: TROS Box Office Thread

[motherofpearl1]

I saw some positive responses about the chemistry between the trio, but the problem is, you can’t just coast on charming chemistry between the actors in your third and final movie. This is where your trio should have already established meaningful relationships and gone through adventures and hardships together.

It would be interesting to know what it would all turn out to be like in an alternate universe where Poe did die in the first movie.

All of Kylo/Ben's scenes are popping up all over the net, and I'm quite shocked that he's only in the film for about thirty minutes. Poe meanwhile is in nearly every scene. Again, he's a likeable character and I like Oscar a lot, but he could have taken over from Leia earlier and been more of a background character. That way both Kylo and Rose could have had more scenes.
I'm still seething over how Adam and Kelly were treated. I'd happily watch a spin off with those two characters alone, although of course it'll never happen.
I think Domhnall was treated unfairly as well. - Hux deserved at least a spectacular ending. He's the Cersei Lannister of SW.

[nickandnora]

They will try to spin it like "evil TLJ is responsible" but it actually will hard to do because the legs is always more about the movie itself than anything else. Even ordinary people know what the legs is. TLJ didn't have the strongest legs, but it was alright even with divisive WOM.

They could have simply retconed most important parts of TLJ instead of pushing three different movies in TROS just because JJ was stubborn to do what he wants and studio also wanted to include something additionally. They should have made cold business decision to make this movie more about Kylo if they're so crazy about fanservice AND also want money. Pushing THE TRIO was a mistake, I guess JJ said to Iger&Co that he will make The Trio work, he is too biased to understand that it would have never worked as memorable selling point after TFA and TLJ.

@special_cases

Yeah, speaking of legs, the updated box office predictions for Saturday are 22.5 million. To put this into perspective, the number on Friday was 26 million. It dropped from Friday to Saturday (yes, it's the holidays, but still). Oh lord. They aren't going to be able to spin the narrative that people like this movie. They do not.

Someone brought up the point elsewhere that the film did relatively OK during the week, but is now dropping off. Think how word of mouth works and what happened this week that was special: family get-togethers for the holidays. It seems people might have told their family members just not to see this movie. That B+ Cinemascore wasn't BS.

Unless Disney and Lucasfilms are additionally suicidal (which based on this fiasco, they might be), they need to NOT scapegoat and realize what went wrong with THIS film. If they ignore and pretend the problem was something else, they are never going to come back from this. I'm very interested in what their next move might be. If I were them, I would do something dramatic like release a different cut of this movie, if they have the footage to make it better (especially the ending). No word of a lie. At least it would be dramatic, generate a lot of publicity, and would possibly get people back in the theater. I seriously doubt this will happen, but if this movie starts to absolutely free-fall... I hope someone advises them to do so. I can't think of another immediate way for them to make back their money.

God, what a mess. My biggest hope from all of this is that it doesn't affect Adam's oscar chances. I don' t *think* it will, but it can't feel great to be associated with this right now (which clearly his handlers foresaw hence why he was almost nowhere in the promotion).

@nickandnora

Seems he changed it to 24.5. Still weak. Though I still think it will make 1B. I just haven't thought that domestic will be that weak. Worldwide is understandable because it seems that they cut marketing budget (because of all risks) and worldwide audience doesn't care about nostalgia-driven SW movie that much.

@special_cases

Ironic thing is that 25 million was still considered to be pretty surprising and disappointing (actually, downright bad), but when compared with 22.5 it's like, "everything is OK folks!" lol (it's not). Curious to know about Sunday and the drop-offs for next week.

ETA: The insider is estimating 20 million for Sunday. Just over 70 million for the weekend, which is almost a 60% drop. Not sure how to put that into context, but I know a few days ago I was talking about 75 million being not good, so...

I don't know how I feel about any of this, TBH. I really don't.

[motherofpearl1]

I don't know if it's true, or not, but someone on YouTube claimed that KK deliberately insisted on killing off Ben Solo, and there were other endings where he lived.
If so, I suspect she's regretting it.

[SW_Heroine_Journey]

72M estimate for the weekend, 361.8M (in comparison to 368.2 for TLJ for Day 10).

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdown/sd2117858820/?view=byDayNum&metric=grossToDate

It seems the trades are spinning it in a positive light i.e. it's no big deal. Which is topsy turvy because I do recall all of them indicated it would completely overtake TLJ by a lot at this time.

The reasoning - I think on one hand, they are celebrating success in Hollywood, people going to the movies. Also, it may be their honey (vs vinegar) way to indicate to Disney not to throw Rian under the bus. Likewise, they may be responding to Disney (this is Disney's way to have their cake and eat it too, perhaps - celebrate TRoS's box office, without a negative comparison to TLJ - if so, they definitely got the message that the publicity and the movie itself to be anti-TLJ did not work, and they are trying to stop the bleeding, or the perception of bleeding).

[OrionStars]

They will try to spin it like "evil TLJ is responsible" but it actually will hard to do because the legs is always more about the movie itself than anything else. Even ordinary people know what the legs is. TLJ didn't have the strongest legs, but it was alright even with divisive WOM.

They could have simply retconed most important parts of TLJ instead of pushing three different movies in TROS just because JJ was stubborn to do what he wants and studio also wanted to include something additionally. They should have made cold business decision to make this movie more about Kylo if they're so crazy about fanservice AND also want money. Pushing THE TRIO was a mistake, I guess JJ said to Iger&Co that he will make The Trio work, he is too biased to understand that it would have never worked as memorable selling point after TFA and TLJ.

@special_cases

Yeah, speaking of legs, the updated box office predictions for Saturday are 22.5 million. To put this into perspective, the number on Friday was 26 million. It dropped from Friday to Saturday (yes, it's the holidays, but still). Oh lord. They aren't going to be able to spin the narrative that people like this movie. They do not.

Someone brought up the point elsewhere that the film did relatively OK during the week, but is now dropping off. Think how word of mouth works and what happened this week that was special: family get-togethers for the holidays. It seems people might have told their family members just not to see this movie. That B+ Cinemascore wasn't BS.

Unless Disney and Lucasfilms are additionally suicidal (which based on this fiasco, they might be), they need to NOT scapegoat and realize what went wrong with THIS film. If they ignore and pretend the problem was something else, they are never going to come back from this. I'm very interested in what their next move might be. If I were them, I would do something dramatic like release a different cut of this movie, if they have the footage to make it better (especially the ending). No word of a lie. At least it would be dramatic, generate a lot of publicity, and would possibly get people back in the theater. I seriously doubt this will happen, but if this movie starts to absolutely free-fall... I hope someone advises them to do so. I can't think of another immediate way for them to make back their money.

God, what a mess. My biggest hope from all of this is that it doesn't affect Adam's oscar chances. I don' t *think* it will, but it can't feel great to be associated with this right now (which clearly his handlers foresaw hence why he was almost nowhere in the promotion).

@nickandnora

Seems he changed it to 24.5. Still weak. Though I still think it will make 1B. I just haven't thought that domestic will be that weak. Worldwide is understandable because it seems that they cut marketing budget (because of all risks) and worldwide audience doesn't care about nostalgia-driven SW movie that much.

@special_cases

Ironic thing is that 25 million was still considered to be pretty surprising and disappointing (actually, downright bad), but when compared with 22.5 it's like, "everything is OK folks!" lol (it's not). Curious to know about Sunday and the drop-offs for next week.

ETA: The insider is estimating 20 million for Sunday. Just over 70 million for the weekend, which is almost a 60% drop. Not sure how to put that into context, but I know a few days ago I was talking about 75 million being not good, so...

I don't know how I feel about any of this, TBH. I really don't.

@nickandnora

This film obviously won't be able to beat TLJ. TROS is performing like TLJ in its second week even though TROS is still in its first week. So the biggest question is what is Iger gonna do to KK after this? He let Favreau and Feige take charge of other SW projects after Solo and TLJ. Who is gonna take charge of the new film that will be released in 2022?

[special_cases]

Yeah, it will be a miracle if it makes 1.3 b. I think 1.1-1.2 is the most high expectation.

[nickandnora]

72M estimate for the weekend, 361.8M (in comparison to 368.2 for TLJ for Day 10).

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdown/sd2117858820/?view=byDayNum&metric=grossToDate

It seems the trades are spinning it in a positive light i.e. it's no big deal.  Which is topsy turvy because I do recall all of them indicated it would completely overtake TLJ by a lot at this time.  

The reasoning - I think on one hand, they are celebrating success in Hollywood, people going to the movies.  Also, it may be their honey (vs vinegar) way to indicate to Disney not to throw Rian under the bus. Likewise, they may be responding to Disney (this is Disney's way to have their cake and eat it too, perhaps - celebrate TRoS's box office, without a negative comparison to TLJ - if so, they definitely got the message that the publicity and the movie itself to be anti-TLJ did not work, and they are trying to stop the bleeding, or the perception of bleeding).

@SW_Heroine_Journey

They are doing what I realize they SHOULD be doing, from a business standpoint. They (Disney) needs to make sure the narrative is that TLJ wasn't a disappointment, and that this is going to do TLJ numbers, therefore THIS is also not a disappointment. I guess it's somewhat noble to try to salvage the reputation of the saga by not throwing either film under the bus, but I'm curious to see the spin next week when the holidays are over. A 59% drop shouldn't be considered good coming off of a holiday week. Again, they can spin it so it's not catastrophic, but I'm wondering what is actually going on behind closed doors; they HAVE to realize this is going to do less than TLJ.

[OrionStars]

I guess you guys are talking about Deadline's newest prediction? Before TROS was released, Deadline also thought TROS would make 450M+ OW and they called it  "industry confidence".  


I can tell that Disney and LFL put their faith in Rey Palwalker/the Faux trio and believed that they could make $2 billion again

[special_cases]

@nickandnora You're right, and they're making it look like everything is amazing to make people return to the theatres. RT score is suspiciously high and not moving, and it doesn't correlate with Cinemascore. And CinemaScore correlates with the numbers we see. So their last chance to make an impression that everything is wonderful, in hope that it will have stable next week at least, and 1.B will be solid.

Though I think they were ready for something like this, they have early stats of demand in beginning of every year and seems that they just made worst choices because of fear. They could have made a decent movie and get better critic reviews, reputation and a litte more promising BO. The only goal they accomplished was the love of hardcore fans who are beyong happe that the whole movie was catered to them. They will close eyes on plotholes, trashy execution and retcon of OT and PT just because it's obvious that the movie was made to please them. They will complain for few monts in the future, but as it's the last movie in the Saga, you can easily ignore the events but the feeling that DLF respects and bows to fanboys will be forever in their heart.

@OrionStars Deadline is delusional, they just make it look like everything is wonderful.

EDIT: Oh wait, maybe there is new Deadline prediction? Last time I read it, they were trying to spin it like TROS is doing not worse than TLJ which is a lie.

[SW_Heroine_Journey]

72M estimate for the weekend, 361.8M (in comparison to 368.2 for TLJ for Day 10).

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdown/sd2117858820/?view=byDayNum&metric=grossToDate

It seems the trades are spinning it in a positive light i.e. it's no big deal.  Which is topsy turvy because I do recall all of them indicated it would completely overtake TLJ by a lot at this time.  

The reasoning - I think on one hand, they are celebrating success in Hollywood, people going to the movies.  Also, it may be their honey (vs vinegar) way to indicate to Disney not to throw Rian under the bus. Likewise, they may be responding to Disney (this is Disney's way to have their cake and eat it too, perhaps - celebrate TRoS's box office, without a negative comparison to TLJ - if so, they definitely got the message that the publicity and the movie itself to be anti-TLJ did not work, and they are trying to stop the bleeding, or the perception of bleeding).

@SW_Heroine_Journey

They are doing what I realize they SHOULD be doing, from a business standpoint. They (Disney) needs to make sure the narrative is that TLJ wasn't a disappointment, and that this is going to do TLJ numbers, therefore THIS is also not a disappointment. I guess it's somewhat noble to try to salvage the reputation of the saga by not throwing either film under the bus, but I'm curious to see the spin next week when the holidays are over. A 59% drop shouldn't be considered good coming off of a holiday week. Again, they can spin it so it's not catastrophic, but I'm wondering what is actually going on behind closed doors; they HAVE to realize this is going to do less than TLJ.

@nickandnora

I noticed that all the trades took a really long time - longer than usual - to release the weekend estimate. So something was obviously going on behind the scenes between the trades and Disney publicists. And when the headlines were released, they all were very positive/everything is fine/this is no big deal that TRoS is slightly behind TLJ. (When I clearly remember all of them, just a few days ago, predicting it would completely overtake TLJ by now).

There is talk about this Holiday week - but I really don't think it's going to be the buffer they're hoping it will be, if this weekend couldn't provide it. Maybe New Year's Day, but the entire week? I don't see it.

[Moonjump05]

Yeah, a lot more people will be working this week compared to last week and NYE tends toward other entertainment than movies.

I'm no industry specialist, but I did used to work in a movie theater. Thanksgiving and Christmas are the big holidays for movie, New Year's not so much.

[Geralt_Riv]

I just imagined people with hangover watching this noisy and lousy mess in the theaters.

[lauvamp]

How is the box office going so far?

I don't wish the movie to fail BUT I hope the disappointment will be reflected, not being much more successful than TLJ.

[nickandnora]

How is the box office going so far?

I don't wish the movie to fail BUT I hope the disappointment will be reflected, not being much more successful than TLJ.

@lauvamp

Well, it's not going to be as successful as TLJ. It will end up making quite a bit less both domestically and internationally.

Its performance so far is one of a film doing technically OK in theory and on paper (like, the opening weekend was large, but not when you actually compare it to other releases, etc.) But when you look at it a little deeper, it sustained OK numbers last week because of the holidays, had a weekend drop that was pretty large (even though it was still the holidays) and it's starting to drop off steeper this week. By next week I think its numbers will be reflective of the quality of this film: it's a disappointing finale that doesn't have particularly good word of mouth.

On one hand, because it's not a COMPLETE failure I was wondering if D/LF were happy with its performance. But I think our discussion in the other thread is indicative of what's actually happening: no one is actually happy with the film itself as a *film* so we're getting these weird scenarios of spin and "explaining" which sound so weird. No one wants to defend the whole film, it just seems they are trying to deflect blame by addressing "parts." To me, that's indicative of a studio that's not happy with its performance as a story or as a box office success, tbh. We'll see what happens in the next couple of weeks.

[lauvamp]

@nickandnora

Thanks! You are right. I didn't expect to see this crazy situation though...

[SW_Heroine_Journey]

How is the box office going so far?

I don't wish the movie to fail BUT I hope the disappointment will be reflected, not being much more successful than TLJ.

@lauvamp

Forbes article created to answer your question!



‘Star Wars’ Box Office: ‘Rise Of Skywalker’ Won’t Top ‘Last Jedi’

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2020/12/31/star-wars-box-office-rise-of-skywalker-wont-top-last-jedi/#4537a76d51c7

[lauvamp]

@SW_Heroine_Journey
Thank you looks good so far.

[unicorn]

I know it´s petty, but I enjoy every day TROS makes less money than TLJ.

[special_cases]

If it gets less than 1.1b, it's a disaster for Lucasmouse.

But the real question is how really they were aware of this in the beginning of the year and how really surprising these numbers for them right now.

I see that Scott finally opened his eyes and reported weak legs. Although sometimes the miracles happen with surprising walk ins and suddenly solid legs for second\third week. Almost never so...

[motherofpearl1]

It's what will happen in the future that intrigues me.
I went to see this film purely for Kylo. But if they make any more SW films, Kylo of course won't be in them. Will the Golden Trio or Rey alone draw in audiences?

I wonder.

[SW_Heroine_Journey]

It's what will happen in the future that intrigues me.
I went to see this film purely for Kylo. But if they make any more SW films, Kylo of course won't be in them. Will the Golden Trio or Rey alone draw in audiences?

I wonder.

@motherofpearl1

If there were trio movie plans, the weak box office killed the plans. The next best place would be Disney+, yet we know the actors (2 of the three, maybe all of them?) indicated it was beneath them (sigh/rolls eyes), so all of it may have been cancelled (or indefinitely postponed) - which may be an explanation for what happened (the topic of our recent discussion).

[Starliteprism]

I know it´s petty, but I enjoy every day TROS makes less money than TLJ.

@unicorn

Emotional validation...I get it.

[special_cases]

It sits on 840M today.



Damn, do you think it'll end this weekend with 920M? Could be even worse with 910-915M.

[motherofpearl1]

Release a Director's Cut with the original ending guys......and watch the BO go up again!

[OrionStars]

So I saw this on an industry forum. They said this is the estimated total cost of TROS (including marketing, reshooting,..etc..)




So TROS needs $1 billion just to break even if we go with the lowest number ($400 million total cost)

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